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An Accommodative Fed and a Strengthening Economy Outweighed Geopolitical Fears
Observations on the Capital Markets – Week Ended June 20, 2014 Iraq news didn’t spark a flight to safety and it’s not yet clear whose side we’re on (or should be on). Fed policy seems to be on...
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Market Noise: Lowering the Volume for Summer
Observations on the Capital Markets – Week Ended June 27, 2014 Summer, summer, summertime – time to sit back and unwind. The Fresh Prince and DJ Jazzy Jeff might have been talking about the quiet tone...
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Signs of Inflation – Not a Concern for the Fed?
On June 18, 2014, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 0.25% and for the 5th consecutive meeting to reduce the pace of monthly asset purchases by...
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Labor Market Looking More “Healed” Than “Healing”
Observations on the Capital Markets – Week Ended July 18, 2014 Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s Congressional testimony this week, in my view, was not pointing to bubbles. In her testimony,...
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Geopolitics Trumped Economics in Last Week’s Capital Markets
Observations on the Capital Markets – Week Ended August 8, 2014 Ukraine developments, more than economic news, seemed to drive the day-to-day pattern of market returns. Russia first massed troops on...
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As the Economy Improves, the Fed Recalibrates its Message
As the economy and labor market improve, quantitative easing (QE) is wound down and the first rate hike draws nearer, the language of the Fed evolves accordingly. Both the minutes of the June FOMC...
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The Dollar Jumped and Stocks Rallied Last Week … What were The Triggers?
Concerns about the Ukraine and Islamic State remained high last week, but diminished at week-end on news of a cease-fire in Ukraine and NATO resolve to address the Islamic State. The European Central...
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Did Fears of the Fed Spark Bond Market Selloff?
Last week in the capital markets: Bonds sold off globally in the week before the Fed meeting. It was a quiet week for economic news, and the geopolitical front was relatively quiet (less fighting but...
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Mind the Gap
Economic fundamentals (the “real economy”) have been struggling to catch up with the buoyant behavior of financial markets and, eventually, these diverging patterns (gaps) will have to be reconciled....
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“Don’t Fight The Fed” Has Been Good Advice in the Past
The Fed’s statement from its meeting last week contained few surprises but was slightly hawkish on a close reading. “Don’t fight the Fed” has been good advice in the past. Maybe it’s different this...
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